What is a Scenario?

A scenario is a narrative or "story" about how the future may unfold. It is based upon information about the changing environment: trends, changing conditions, competitor analysis, or other relevant data. The narrative is descriptive. It compellingly evokes a clear picture of what is possible.

Here are a few types of scenarios that our clients have found helpful.

1. The Intersection of Driving Forces. "Driving Forces" are very important and highly variable trends and conditions that are likely to determine how the environment will change, and what your organization's future will look like. By plotting the course of these driving forces, and where they intersect, you can develop several different scenarios, all of which have a high likelihood of becoming reality.

2. Outlying Scenarios. Scenarios may or may not be probable. In fact, some of the scenarios that have been most valuable for our clients have been the far fetched or "outlying" scenarios. While not highly likely, they would change the nature of your business if they happened. These scenarios are valuable to:

• Open your thinking to new possibilities and opportunities you might otherwise miss

• Challenge your assumptions about your company and its environment

• Prepare your team to address different situations that may arise (including some that are more likely than the outlying scenarios you discuss).

3. Best/Worst Case. The best/worst case scenarios, while most commonly understood, are not always the most valuable scenarios. However, when developed in combination with the Intersection of Driving Forces, they can be very informative about the team's current assumptions about the organization and its environment. Also, they can be used as extremes against which to test other scenarios.

These are a few examples of the kinds of scenarios that are often helpful. However, we work with each client to identify the scenarios most appropriate to their industry, organization, and unique circumstances.